Poll: Hochul leads all potential challengers for governor
The race for New York governor begins in earnest in 2026, but in early summer 2025 Gov. Kathy Hochul leads each of three potential Republican challengers by at least 20 points, according to a new Siena College poll.
For now, Hochul leads possible contenders U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik 47%-24%, U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler 44%-24% and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 44-19%. None of the three have officially announced their intention to run, however.
A year out from potential gubernatorial primaries, Democrats overwhelmingly favor Hochul (49%) over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (12%) and U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres (10%). Republicans strongly favor Stefanik (35%), who has a higher political profile than Lawler (18%) and Blakeman (7%).
“Recognizing that 16 months in politics is many lifetimes away, a first look at how New York voters feel about potential gubernatorial matchups shows that partisanship wins out,” Siena College Research Institute director Don Levy said. “While the early leads seem large, Hochul is not hitting the ‘magic’ 51% mark against any of these opponents, and in each matchup, between a quarter and a third of voters wasn’t able to choose between the two candidates.”
Hochul’s favorability rating is 42%-47%, down slightly from 44%-46% in May. Her job approval rating is 50%-45%, barely changed from 50-46% last month.
Siena found that, currently, 37% are prepared to re-elect Hochul, while 55% want “someone else,” little changed from 36%-55% in late May.
Stefanik of the North Country, a close ally of President Donald Trump, has a 25%-32% favorability rating, while Lawler’s is 22%-24% and Blakeman’s is 16%-17%. Stefanik, who was Trump’s nominee to be Ambassador to the United Nations before the nomination was pulled earlier this year to preserve the GOP’s hold on her congressional seat, and Lawler have both ramped up their respective media presence across the state. They are issuing press releases and making comments on statewide issues that have little to do with their roles as U.S. House members, clear indications they are raising their statewide profiles.
On the Democratic side, Delgado, who broke politically from Hochul, has a 24%-18% favorability rating and Torres has a 22%-18% favorability rating.
“One year out from a potential primary, two in five Republicans don’t know who they’ll support among Stefanik, Lawler and Blakeman, but Stefanik maintains an early lead, 17 points ahead of Lawler, who is 11 points ahead of Blakeman,” Levy said.
MEDICAL AID IN DYING
The Medical Aid in Dying Act passed in the Senate in early June and now is in the hands of Hochul, who must sign the legislation for it to become law.
“While it doesn’t have the same level of support as several other less controversial bills that passed the Legislature at the end of session, voters support what some call medical aid in dying and others call physician-assisted suicide, 54%-28%,” Levy said.
The measure has better than 2-1 support from Democrats and independents, and Republicans support it 48%-39%, he added.
“It has support from at least 53% of voters from every region of the state, and at least 54% support from young, middle-aged and older voters,” Levy said.
