ALBANY (TNS) — U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik is the early favorite among Republicans to be their party’s nominee in next year’s race for governor, according to a new poll from the Siena Research Institute.
A third of voters registered with the GOP said they don’t know who they would vote for, putting any of the three leading candidates in a position to prevail in a primary.
The two other Republicans considering a run — U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman — had split voters in last month’s Siena poll before Stefanik entered the field.
“When Stefanik was not included last month, Blakeman had a narrow 6-point lead over Lawler,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.
Stefanik now surpasses both among Republican voters — 35% said they would choose her over Lawler, who received support from 22% of voters, and Blakeman, who polled at 11%.
That doesn’t mean she’s well-liked among the broader electorate. Stefanik’s favorability currently sits at 25%, according to the poll, with 35% finding her unfavorable and another 39% having no opinion of her.
That’s a challenge Stefanik will have to surpass if she wants to appeal statewide in next year’s race for governor. Stefanik has not declared her candidacy but has said she’s strongly considering challenging Hochul.
The poll did not test a head-to-head matchup between Stefanik and Hochul, but did find that 55% of voters would prefer to elect someone other than the incumbent.
But there was plenty of good news for Hochul in the poll as well. Her favorability held steady at 44% compared to last month and her job approval increased by two points to 50%.
Democrats also said they would still prefer Hochul as their nominee in next year’s race over two potential primary challengers: Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Rep. Ritchie Torres.
“Not surprisingly, they both continue to trail Hochul by a large margin — and by virtually every demographic — when Democrats are asked to choose next year’s gubernatorial nominee,” Greenberg said.
Some of Hochul’s recent accomplishments could help cement that lead. More than two-thirds of voters said they support two new laws Hochul spearheaded in this year’s state budget: free school meals statewide and a full-day ban on students using smartphones in schools.
Two of Hochul’s other priorities — stimulus-style checks to be sent out this year and a new ability to cut state spending without action from the Legislature — also received more support than opposition.
But voters were split evenly on two other provisions in the budget: a new $10 million fund to pay the legal expenses of state employees targeted by the federal government and up to $8 billion to pay off the state’s unemployment insurance debt.
“Democrats support the $10 million fund for legal expenses of state employees facing retaliation from the federal government, however, independents are opposed and Republicans are very opposed,” Greenberg said.
Republican lawmakers contend the fund was slipped into the budget by Democrats to benefit state Attorney General Letitia James, whose property dealings are the target of an ongoing investigation by the FBI and U.S. Department of Justice.
Democrats also have work to do if they want voters to come around on the issues of immigration and transgender rights.
The poll found that 45% of voters believe New York should support President Donald J. Trump’s deportation efforts, while 38% said the state should oppose them.
And only 22% of voters said that school districts in New York should be required to allow transgender girls to play on girls’ sports teams. About twice as many voters said the state should prohibit that.
“While there is no gender gap on this issue, there is a difference based on age, as voters under 35 are closely divided, and 54% of voters 55 and older say it should be banned,” Greenberg said.
