With a month to go until the general election, Democrat Eric Massa leads U.S. Rep. John R. “Randy” Kuhl by 5 percentage points in a 29th Congressional District poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that was released on Monday.

On Tuesday, an independent poll by Congressional Quarterly, the official Capitol Hill newspaper, showed Mr. Massa, a retired navy commander from Corning, leading the Republican incumbent 51 to 44 percent.

“The families of Western New York are demanding a change in leadership and I am running to be that change,” Mr. Massa said of the poll results. “The fact that we are leading in the polls and have had another record fundraising quarter without taking a dime from corporate special interests shows the true grassroots strength of our campaign.”

The DCCC poll, conducted by Beneson Strategy Group, found 13 percent of those polled undecided. The survey of 403 likely voters from across the congressional district, has a margin of error of about 5 percent. Eighty-four percent of those polled said the country was headed in the wrong direction.

Justin Stokes, campaign manager for Rep. Kuhl’s re-election campaign, discounted the polls showing Mr. Massa in the lead with four weeks to go before the election. The calls were made with a computer system, not a live person, he said.

“I don’t know how reliable they are,” he said. “I don’t put a lot of credibility in robo-calls.”

Mr. Stokes said the Kuhl campaign hasn’t released its internal polls, but in a poll taken last January by the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, Rep. Kuhl led Mr. Massa by 20 points.

“I think we’re in a strong position to win the election, particularly in Cattaraugus and Allegany counties” where the two-term Republican ran well in 2006.

In 2006, Rep Kuhl won re-election over Mr. Massa by a little over 6,000 votes �“ 51.4 percent to 48.5 percent �“ out of more than 206,000 votes cast.

Republicans hold a 50,000 voter enrollment edge over Democrats in the eight-county 29th Congressional District. As of March 1, the New York State Board of Elections showed 177,515 registered Republicans, 122,538 Democrats, 15,760 independents, 6,574 Conservatives and about 1,200 each for the Working families Party and Green Party.

In the 2008 election cycle, Mr. Massa has raised more in campaign contributions through the Aug. 20 filing with the Federal Elections Commission than Rep. Kuhl.

Those figures show Mr. Massa having raised $1,395,511 to $1,078,950 for Rep. Kuhl. Mr. Massa spent $871,067, leaving him with $532,262, while Rep. Kuhl’s campaign spent $523,079, with $571,555 remaining on Aug. 20.

More than $1 million of Mr. Massa’s contributions - or 72 percent - came from individuals, while 23 percent - or $316,961 - came from political action committees (PACs). The Kuhl campaign reported receiving $606,887, or 56 percent from PACs, and $415,785, or 39 percent from individuals.

Mr. Massa, who does not accept corporate PAC donations, points out Rep. Kuhl has received more than $1.1 million from corporate PACs over his Congressional career, including almost $250,000 from finance, insurance and real estate interests.

The Massa campaign also accuses Rep. Kuhl of flip-flopping on the recent Wall Street bailout, first voting against the $700 billion Bush plan, then last Friday voting for the bailout after Congress had added another $150 billion “in pork-barrel spending” to the taxpayer-funded plan.

The Republican congressman told reporters following the first vote that he could not support a taxpayer-funded bailout. Rep. Kuhl said afterward, “On Monday (Sept. 29), I voted against a bad bill so Congress could create a better one that will stabilize our economy and restore confidence in financial markets. This is a difficult situation and I am doing my best to protect the taxpayers and jobs for our district.”

Rep. Kuhl’s office issued a press release on Monday citing support from the National Association of Manufacturers for his vote on the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 He was among 17 Republicans in competitive races to change their vote, according to Congressional Quarterly. Sixty-five percent of Republicans in Congress voted against the final bailout bill.

Congressional Quarterly has moved the 29th District race into the weaker “leans Republican” column from “Republican favored” earlier this year. The newspaper wrote: “In the Southern Tier, John R. ‘Randy’ Kuhl Jr. will be struggling to win a third term against former Navy commander Eric Massa, who came within 6,000 votes last time.”

Also, the Cook Political Report has moved the 29th Congressional District into its “toss up” column, after listing it as leaning Republican as late as May.

(Contact reporter Rick Miller at rmiller@oleantimesherald.com)

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